Financial Modelling

Community Housing Organisations (CHOs) in Victoria have historically focused on delivering social (community) housing. Community housing is regulated by the Victorian Government with eligibility generally limited to ‘very low income’ individuals. Rents are capped at 25%-30% of gross income.

The rent-setting mechanisms for community housing presents challenges for CHOs to grow their portfolios without significant subsidy. Soft income levels with little capacity for growth limits the borrowing capacity of CHOs to progress new development, making new supply highly dependent on direct government subsidies and/or grant funding.

Community Housing Industry Association VIC (CHIA VIC) is co-designing with the community housing sector a 10-year Sector-wide Roadmap aimed at supporting the delivery of 30,000 new social housing dwellings over the next decade. This level of new supply would represent a ‘step change’ for the CHO sector and would go well beyond the ~2,300 social housing dwellings to be delivered by CHOs via the strategic partnerships program of the Big Housing Build.

The recent introduction of Homes Victoria’s Affordable Housing Rental Scheme shows there is a broad range of housing programs that CHOs could be managing, which would allow them to provide housing assistance to a broader cohort of renters but also provide opportunity for them to grow their core business more sustainably.

What we are doing

Atlas is carrying out financial modelling to investigate the cashflow implications of different housing programs and potential growth opportunities for Victorian CHOs.

The findings of the work will assist CHOs and government agencies and stakeholders who support the sector.

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