The Election and Housing: Ireland’s Wake-Up Call for Oz

Australia is not unique in enduring a ferocious housing crisis as the issue is a global one. Ireland provides a cautionary tale on the political impact it can have. The topic dominated the country’s recent election, reshaping political priorities and influencing voter behaviour.

The Irish Housing Crisis: A Snapshot

Ireland’s housing affordability crisis didn’t emerge overnight. Years of under-investment in public housing, a lack of new development and a growing population. These all led to spiralling house prices in a pattern that closely tracks Australia (Figure 1).

Dublin, the nation’s capital, became emblematic of the problem. Renters faced skyrocketing costs, with average rent and sales prices doubling in less than a decade. The supply of affordable homes failed to keep pace with demand. Homelessness figures reached acute levels. Over 10,000 people including families, relying on emergency accommodation. The crisis was particularly acute for younger generations. Many of whom were priced out of homeownership altogether. These challenges were not merely economic. They became deeply personal and emotional issues, fuelling public discontent.

Figure 1: Residential Price Index (2000 = 100)

Housing as a decisive election Issue

A snap Irish general election was called in November 2024, preluding a 3-week campaign. With housing affordability the dominant issue. Parties across the spectrum were forced to address voter concerns on the topic. But it was Sinn Féin, a traditional opposition party that captured the public’s attention with a bold housing platform. Sinn Fein have in the past been associated with the IRA, a provisional terrorist group who were seeking a unified Ireland.

The election resulted in Fianna Fáil remaining as the largest party and increasing its number of seats. With Sinn Féin coming in second. However, it was the bold housing proposals from the latter that captured young voters. Their ‘Choice for Change’ platform included ambitious plans to build 100,000 public homes over five years. As well as freeze rents and strengthen tenant rights. Economists may question the merit of these proposals and the extent to which they will have a meaningful impact on affordability. But the proposed measures resonated deeply with young people as they felt abandoned by the traditional political establishment.

The party’s focus on housing combined with its ability to frame the crisis as a symptom of a broader systemic inequality. This allowed it to emerge as a stronger credible alternative to the long-dominant parties. Sinn Féin became the most popular party among voters under 35 and maintained its position as a major political force. And perhaps seen as a leading indicator of future political directional change. It also demonstrates the power of housing as an electoral issue and growing discontent with the status quo.

Broader lessons from Ireland’s election

Ireland’s experience underscores the political potency of housing affordability. It became a question of fairness, dignity, and the right to a stable home. Especially for many young voters and those in urban areas. The affordable housing crisis transcended partisan loyalties.

The election also highlighted the importance of bold, actionable solutions. Whether sound approaches or not, voters responded to Sinn Féin’s clear and ambitious proposals. Signalling that incremental measures were no longer enough in the face of a deepening crisis. The party’s success serves as a reminder that tackling housing affordability needs to be more than rhetoric. Instead, it requires tangible commitments from the Government.

Implications for Australia

As Australia faces its own housing affordability crisis, the parallels to Ireland are striking. Australia’s major cities have seen property prices rise higher and faster than in Dublin. Renters are feeling the squeeze and home ownership is increasingly unattainable for many. The impacts are widespread. Affecting everyone from young professionals to essential workers to retirees.

The ferocity of the housing crisis has coincided with a period of historically high net overseas migration. This has led some to question the economic necessity of overseas migration.

Figure 2: Median Sale Price, Major Capital Cities (2005-24)

Figure 3: Median Asking Rental, Major Capital Cities (2005-24)

If the Irish experience is any indication, Australia’s political leaders cannot afford to ignore the housing crisis. They need to take bolder actions as public frustration is palpable. Failure to act could lead to significant political consequences. So addressing the crisis requires more than minor policy tweaks. It demands a more comprehensive approach. Including increasing housing supply, expanding affordable rental options, and introducing more equality.

One key takeaway from Ireland’s election was the need to listen to young people. In Australia, millennials and Gen Z are disproportionately affected by the housing crisis. Yet they remain underrepresented in political discourse. Engaging with their concerns and crafting policies that reflect their realities could prove decisive in future elections.

Politicians beware: Meaningful action cannot wait

Ireland’s election is a reminder of the power of housing affordability as a political issue. The crisis reshaped the country’s political landscape. It also offers some lessons for other cities and nations facing similar challenges.

For Australia, addressing the housing crisis is not only a moral imperative but also a political necessity. How the coming weeks unfold on this issue will be closely watched.

‍